Sarah Isgurphlboss, a longtime Republican campaign operative — and my friend and a senior editor at The Dispatch — has a brilliant sports analogy for the process of campaigning. She compares it to … curling.

For those unfamiliar with the sport (which enjoys 15 minutes of fame every Winter Olympics), it involves sliding a very large, heavy rock toward a target on the ice. One person throws a 44-pound disk-shaped stone by sliding it along the ice, then sweepers come in and frantically try to marginally change the speed and direction of the rock by brushing the ice with brooms that can melt just enough of the ice to make the rock travel farther or perhaps a little bit straighter.

The sweepers are important, no doubt, but they cannot control the rock enough to save a bad throw. It’s a matter of physics. The rock simply has too much momentum.

What does this have to do with politics? As Isgur writes, “The underlying dynamics of an election cycle (the economy, the popularity of the president, national events driving the news cycle) are like the 44-pound stone.” The candidates and the campaign team are the sweepers. They work frantically — and they can influence the stone — but they don’t control it.

One of the frustrating elements of political commentary is that we spend far too much time talking about the sweeping and far too little time talking about the stone. Political hobbyists in particular (and that includes journalists) are very interested in ad campaigns, ground games and messaging.

Those things do matter, but when facing an election defeat this comprehensive, you know it was the stone that made the difference.

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